10 year market analysis between West Vancouver, Squamish and Whistler real estate markets.

Dated: January 18 2024

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10 year market analysis between West Vancouver, Squamish and Whistler real estate markets.

I have always been curious to see if there is much correlation between the two major markets adjacent to Squamish which are West Vancouver to the south and Whistler to the north. Both of these surrounding markets are among the most expensive markets  in Canada so it would make sense to me that we see some correlation and also upwards price pressure on Squamish. Read on to see my findings.

Below we discuss the growth percentage over a 10-year period (2013-2023) for each location (Squamish, West Vancouver, and Whistler), we will calculate the overall growth percentage from the baseline year (2013) to the final year (2023). This calculation gives us insight into the long-term market trends in each area.

The growth percentage is calculated using the formula:

Growth Percentage=http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">Growth Percentage= fence="true">(Final ValueInitial ValueInitial Value)×100%

10 year real estate market analysis comparing Squamish, Whistler and West Vancouver

The bar chart above visually represents the total growth percentage in median sales prices for the 10 year period from 2013 to 2023 for each location. Here are the key observations:

1. Squamish: Exhibited a remarkable growth of approximately 142.5% over the 10-year period, indicating a substantial increase in median sales prices.

2. West Vancouver: Experienced a growth of about 42.9%, which, while lower than Squamish, still represents significant growth over the decade.

3. Whistler: Showed a strong growth as well, with an increase of approximately 122.8% in median sales prices.

These figures reflect the overall market trends in each area over the past decade, highlighting substantial growth in property values, particularly in Squamish and Whistler. The differences in growth rates can be attributed to various factors, including local economic conditions, housing supply and demand, and regional development activities. This data tells me that Squamish has actually out performed the surrounding markes and shows that there is some value baked in as Squamish remains more affordable than either adjacent market.

Next let's look at each market individually on a year by year basis and see if there is much yearly correlation between the three locations:

Year-over-year percentage changes in median sales prices for Squamish, West Vancouver and Whistler

Let's start by discussing the year-over-year percentage changes in median sales prices for Squamish, West Vancouver and Whistler, as depicted in the above bar graph:

- Squamish: This year serves as the baseline, so there's no percentage change to report.
- West Vancouver: Also a baseline year with no percentage change.
- Whistler: As with the others, 2013 is the baseline year.

- Squamish: There's a slight decrease in the median sales price compared to 2013, indicating a minor market contraction.
- West Vancouver: Experiences an increase in median sales price, suggesting market growth.
- Whistler: Shows a slight decrease, similar to Squamish, although the change is minimal.

- Squamish: The market rebounds significantly with a noticeable increase in median sales prices, indicating a strong growth year.
- West Vancouver: Continues to see a substantial increase, indicating ongoing market strength.
- Whistler: Also experiences growth, though less pronounced than in West Vancouver.

- Squamish: The upward trend continues with another year of significant growth in median sales prices.
- West Vancouver: The market peaks with the highest year-over-year increase in this period, showing exceptional growth.
- Whistler: Also displays strong growth, though not as pronounced as West Vancouver.

- Squamish: Growth continues, but at a slightly reduced rate compared to the previous year.
- West Vancouver: Experiences a downturn, with a noticeable decrease in median sales prices, indicating a market cooling.
- Whistler: Contrary to West Vancouver, Whistler sees its most significant increase in this period, indicating a booming market.

- Squamish: Continues to grow, albeit at a more modest rate compared to the explosive growth in earlier years.
- West Vancouver: Still in a cooling phase, but the decrease is less severe than in 2017.
- Whistler: Slight increase, suggesting a stabilizing market after the significant growth in 2017.

- Squamish: Growth is relatively flat, indicating a stabilizing or maturing market.
- West Vancouver: Similar to Squamish, the market is relatively stable with minimal growth.
- Whistler: Also shows minimal growth, indicating market stability.

- Squamish: Experiences a slight increase, suggesting a return to growth.
- West Vancouver: Also returns to growth, recovering from the previous years of stagnation.
- Whistler: Shows a significant increase, possibly influenced by factors specific to the area or broader economic trends.

- Squamish: Growth accelerates again, indicating a resurgence in the market.
- West Vancouver: Also shows increased growth, following the general upward trend in the region.
- Whistler: Experiences a slight decrease, possibly a market correction after the significant increase in 2020.

- Squamish: Continues its growth trend, although the rate of increase slows down compared to 2021.
- West Vancouver: Also continues to grow, maintaining a steady upward trajectory.
- Whistler: Sees a substantial increase, indicating a strong rebound.

- Squamish: The growth rate slows downsignificantly, suggesting a cooling or stabilizing market.
- West Vancouver: Also experiences a decrease in growth rate, aligning with the general trend of market stabilization.
- Whistler: Continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in 2022, but still showing robust market performance.

Summary and Key Observations
- Squamish displayed a fluctuating trend with significant growth around 2015-2016 and a gradual stabilization towards 2023.
- West Vancouver showed remarkable growth, especially in 2016, but faced a downturn in 2017. The market gradually recovered, showing a steady growth pattern in subsequent years.
- Whistler generally demonstrated steady growth throughout the years, with the most notable increases in 2017 and 2022.

The distinct market dynamics in each location reflect various factors influencing real estate prices, such as economic conditions, housing demand and supply, local developments, and broader regional trends. The analysis suggests that while there are overarching regional trends, local factors play a significant role and the three locations were less directly correlated than I initially thought they would be (other than the obvoious general trend of increasing sales prices).

Locally in Squamish I know that we are facing ongoing pressure for housing inventory as there is a backlog for rental homes and low inventory for newer homes avaibale to purchase (and what does hit the market seems to sell very fast still).

Blog author image

Mike Jones

Having lived in Squamish and the Sea to Sky corridor for over 20 years, Mike has enjoyed life as a professional firefighter, a professional mountain biker, a husband and a dog dad. The trails, the mou....

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